Our 2023 Oscars Predictions

The 95th Academy Awards is taking place in March and will be hosted by Jimmy Kimmel. 

From Hollywood legends such as Spielberg and Cameron to first-time nominees such as Austin Butler, Brendan Fraser and Michelle Yeoh this year’s Oscars predictions are quite exciting!

As a reminder, these are only predictions. The Oscar Nomination Ballots go out on January 12th with a deadline on the 17th and on January 24th, the nominees are announced.

But as it happens every year, predictions are going around. So, let’s look at Variety’s Oscar 2023 list and dive deep into their predictions.

Variety’s disclaimer reads: “The prediction pages are Davis’ assessment of the current standings of the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any film or performance. Like any organization or body that votes, each category is fluid and subject to change. Predictions are updated every Thursday.”


Best Picture

All Quiet on the Western Front” (Netflix)

Daniel Marc Dreifuss, Malte Grunert

Avatar: The Way of Water” (20th Century Studios)

James Cameron, Jon Landau

The Banshees of Inisherin” (Searchlight Pictures)

Graham Broadbent, Peter Czernin, Martin McDonagh

Elvis” (Warner Bros.)

Baz Luhrmann, Gail Berman, Catherine Martin, Patrick McCormick, Schuyler Weiss

Everything Everywhere All at Once” (A24)

Dan Kwan, Mike Larocca, Daniel Scheinert, Jonathan Wang

The Fabelmans” (Universal Pictures)

Tony Kushner, Kristie Macosko Krieger, Steven Spielberg

Living” (Sony Pictures Classics)

Stephen Woolley, Elizabeth Karlsen

Tár” (Focus Features)

Todd Field, Scott Lambert, Alexandra Milchan

Top Gun: Maverick” (Paramount Pictures) ***

Jerry Bruckheimer, Tom Cruise, Christopher McQuarrie, David Ellison

Triangle of Sadness” (Neon)

Philippe Bober, Erik Hemmendorff

*** Why Top Gun: Maverick for Best Picture? It’s the best-reviewed movie of 2022, and it was a worldwide box office success, making over $1.4 billion in theater sales. I don’t know if the Academy will give the award to Top Gun: Maverick, but I have to say, the movie did accomplish the unimaginable: bring theater back to life. 

The Trailer is available here.

Best Director

Todd Field ***

“Tár” (Focus Features)

Joseph Kosinski

“Top Gun: Maverick” (Paramount Pictures)

Baz Luhrmann

“Elvis” (Warner Bros.)

Martin McDonagh

“The Banshees of Inisherin” (Searchlight Pictures)

Steven Spielberg

“The Fabelmans” (Universal Pictures)

 *** Why Todd Field for Best Director? In 2001, Field made his directorial debut with “In the Bedroom,” which earned five nominations at the Oscars but none for Best Director. It wouldn’t be surprising if Todd Field wins best director for his powerful work on “Tár.”

The trailer is available here.

Best Actor

Austin Butler ***

“Elvis” (Warner Bros.)

Tom Cruise

“Top Gun: Maverick” (Paramount Pictures)

Colin Farrell

“The Banshees of Inisherin” (Searchlight Pictures)

Brendan Fraser

“The Whale” (A24)

Bill Nighy

“Living” (Sony Pictures Classics)

*** Why Austin Butler for Best Actor? He captured the voice, the singing, the looks. It’s not an easy task to play Elvis Presley, yet Austin Butler did it with exceptional talent.

Trailer is available here.

Best Actress

Cate Blanchett ***

“Tár” (Focus Features)

Danielle Deadwyler

“Till” (Orion/United Artists Releasing)

Viola Davis

“The Woman King” (Sony Pictures)

Michelle Williams

“The Fabelmans” (Universal Pictures)

Michelle Yeoh

“Everything Everywhere All at Once” (A24)

***Why Cate Blanchett for Best Actress? Cate Blanchett is absolutely mesmerizing in Tár. She gives the performance of a lifetime. And once again, she brilliantly plays a powerful, strong queer character, Blanchett Style. 

The Trailer is available here.

Best Supporting Actor

Brendan Gleeson

“The Banshees of Inisherin” (Searchlight Pictures)

Tom Hanks

“Elvis” (Warner Bros.)

Judd Hirsch

“The Fabelmans” (Universal Pictures)

Barry Keoghan

“The Banshees of Inisherin” (Searchlight Pictures)

Ke Huy Quan ***

“Everything Everywhere All at Once” (A24)

***Why Ke Huy Quan for Best Supporting Actor? Quan is incredible in the movie Everything Everywhere All At Once but the role also marks a comeback for the actor. And in Hollywood, everyone loves a successful comeback.

Watch the Trailer here.

Best Supporting Actress

Angela Bassett ***

“Black Panther: Wakanda Forever” (Marvel Studios)

Kerry Condon

“The Banshees of Inisherin” (Searchlight Pictures)

Jamie Lee Curtis

“Everything Everywhere All at Once” (A24)

Dolly De Leon

“Triangle of Sadness” (Neon)

Nina Hoss

“Tár” (Focus Features)

***Why Angela Basset for Best Supporting Actress? She’s gotten over 88 nominations in her career, but only one for an Oscar. She’s played in some of the most amazing movies and shows, and all of her scenes in Black Panther: Wakanda Forever shine for her performance. 

Watch the trailer here.

Best Original Screenplay

Aftersun” (A24)

Charlotte Wells

The Banshees of Inisherin” (Searchlight Pictures)

Martin McDonagh

Everything Everywhere All at Once” (A24)

Daniel Kwan, Daniel Scheinert

Tár” (Focus Features) ***

Todd Field

Triangle of Sadness” (Neon)

Ruben Östlund

***Why Tár for Best Original Screenplay? Todd Field wrote Tár 16 years after his last film. He wrote the script at the beginning of the pandemic and finished it within 12 weeks. It’s a script that was crafted mainly around the characters putting them as the driving force of the story.

Read the PDF script here.

Best Adapted Screenplay

All Quiet on the Western Front” (Netflix)

Edward Berger, Lesley Paterson, Ian Stokell (based on the novel by Erich Maria Remarque)

Glass Onion: A Knives Out Story” (Netflix)

Rian Johnson (based on characters written by Johnson)

Living” (Sony Pictures Classics)

Kazuo Ishiguro (based on “Ikiru” by Akira Kurosawa, Shinobu Hashimoto and Hideo Oguni)

Top Gun: Maverick” (Paramount Pictures)

Peter Craig, Justin Marks, Ehren Kruger, Eric Warren Singer, Christopher McQuarrie (based on characters created by Jim Cash and Jack Epps Jr.)

Women Talking” (MGM/United Artists Releasing) ***

Sarah Polley (based on the book by Miriam Toews)

***Why Women Talking for Best Adapted Screenplay? Based on the 2018 novel of the same name by Miriam Toews, this movie follows a group of women who are part of a religious group. After an incident happens, they all wonder should they leave or should they stay. 

Trailer available here.

Best Animated Feature

Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio” (Netflix) ***

Guillermo del Toro, Mark Gustafson (directors), Alexander Bulkley, Corey Campodonico, Lisa Henson, Gary Ungar

Inu-Oh” (GKids)

Masaaki Yuasa (director), Fumie Takeuchi, Eunyoung Choi (producers)

Marcel the Shell with Shoes On” (A24)

Dean Fleischer-Camp (director and producer), Andrew Goldman, Elisabeth Holm, Caroline Kaplan, Paul Mezey (producers)

Puss in Boots: The Last Wish” (DreamWorks Animation)

Joel Crawford (director), Mark Swift (producer)

Turning Red” (Pixar)

Domee Shi (director), Lindsey Collins (producer)

***Why Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio for Best Animated Feature? I’m sure you’ve seen plenty of posts on social media of people amazed by every frame in this movie. It’s no surprise that it is predicted to win. 

Trailer available here.

Best Production Design

Avatar: The Way of Water” (20th Century Studios)

Dylan Cole, Ben Procter (production designer), Vanessa Cole (set decorator)

Babylon” (Paramount Pictures)

Florencia Martin (production designer), Anthony Carlino (set decorator)

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever” (Marvel Studios)

Hannah Beachler (production designer), Lisa K. Sessions (set decorator)

Elvis” (Warner Bros) ***

Catherine Martin, Karen Murphy (production designer), Bev Dunn (set decorator)

The Fabelmans” (Universal Pictures)

Rick Carter (production designer), Karen O’Hara (set decorator)

***Why Elvis for Best Production Design? It’s no surprise that Elvis might be the winner. After all, there’s so much of the historical time recreated in this movie. Locations, stages, Elvis’ mansion, the carnival, and Las Vegas Hotel where he played his residency. 

A video that shows the recreation of the iconic locations here.

Best Cinematography

All Quiet on the Western Front” (Netflix)

James Friend

Avatar: The Way of Water” (20th Century Studios)

Russell Carpenter

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever” (Marvel Studios)

Autumn Durald Arkapaw

Empire of Light” (Searchlight Pictures)

Roger Deakins

Top Gun: Maverick” (Paramount Pictures) ***

Claudio Miranda

***Why Top Gun: Maverick for Best Cinematography? The movie pushes what’s been done on screen before. For example, Imax Sony Venice cameras were put in the jets the actors would fly, additional helicopter-to-jet cameras for more action, and a plan for angles and lighting. A lot of thought was put into the filming of each scene, and the limits of the imaginable were once again pushed with this movie.

Aerial cinematography explained here.

Best Costume Design

The Banshees of Inisherin” (Searchlight Pictures)

Eimer Ni Mhaoldomhnaigh

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever” (Marvel Studios)

Ruth E. Carter

Elvis” (Warner Bros) ***

Catherine Martin

Living” (Sony Pictures Classics)

Sandy Powell

The Woman King” (TriStar Pictures)

Gersha Phillips

***Why Elvis for Best Costume Design? Elvis’ most famous and iconic outfits were recreated in this movie, making it a historical piece. 

Costume design video here.

Best Film Editing

The Banshees of Inisherin” (Searchlight Pictures)

Mikkel E.G. Nielsen

Elvis” (Warner Bros.)

Jonathan Redmond, Matt Villa

Everything Everywhere All at Once” (A24)

Paul Rogers

Top Gun: Maverick” (Paramount Pictures) ***

Eddie Hamilton

The Woman King” (Sony Pictures)

Terilyn A. Shropshire

***Why Top Gun: Maverick for Best Film Editing? If you watched Top Gun: Maverick it is no surprise that it could win Best Editing since the scenes are so perfectly edited together to create an action-packed movie.

An editing tour here.

Best Make-Up and Hairstyling

The Batman” (Warner Bros.)

Naomi Donne (makeup designer), Mike Marino (prosthetics design), Zoe Tahir (hair designer)

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever” (Marvel Studios)

Joel Harlow (makeup department head)

Crimes of the Future” (Neon)

Names to be added

Elvis” (Warner Bros.) ***

Shane Thomas (hair and makeup designer), Mark Coulier (prosthetics designer), Jason Baird (prosthetics supervisor for Tom Hanks and Austin Butler), Louise Coulston (key hairdesser)

The Whale” (A24)

Adrien Morot (prosthetic makeup designer), Judy Chin (makeup department head), Anne Marie Bradley (hair department head)

***Why Elvis for Best Make-Up and Hairstyling? Similarly to why Elvis for Best Costume, the work that was put into making the hairstyles of Elvis and everyone else involved in the movie is impressive and makes the audience believe that they are traveling back in time.

Some behind the scenes here.

Best Sound 

All Quiet on the Western Front” (Netflix)

Lars Ginzel, Frank Kruse, Markus Stemler, Viktor Prášil

Avatar: The Way of Water” (20th Century Studios)

Gwen Whittle (supervising sound editor), Gary Summers, Mike Hedges (re-recording mixers), Chris Boyes (supervising sound editor, re-recording mixer), Tony Johnson (production sound mixer), Julian Howarth

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever” (Marvel Studios)

Benjamin A. Burtt, Steve Boeddeker (supervising sound editors), Steve Boeddeker, Brandon Proctor (re-recording mixer)

Elvis” (Warner Bros.)

David Lee (production sound mixer), Wayne Pashley (sound designer, supervising sound editor), Andy Nelson, Michael Keller (re-recording mixers)

Top Gun: Maverick” (Paramount Pictures) ***

Mark Weingarten (production sound mixer), James H. Mather, Al Nelson (supervising sound editors), Chris Burdon, Mark Taylor (re-recording mixers)

***Why Top Gun: Maverick for Best Sound? My guess would be because of how creative and on point the team was to re-create sounds, such as contained mic pack fitting inside the actors’ costumes to get the real feeling of their dialogue without seeing the mics on camera. They would go from inside to outside the jets to get the true experience of sound. The outside sound was created by combining real aircraft carrier sounds, jet engine sounds, and added sound effects. 

Best Visual Effects

All Quiet on the Western Front” (Netflix)

Markus Frank, Viktor Muller, Frank Petzold (vfx supervisor), Kamil Jafar (sfx supervisor)

Avatar: The Way of Water” (20th Century Studios)

Joe Letteri, Richard Baneham, Eric Saindon, Daniel Barrett

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever” (Marvel Studios)

Geoffrey Baumann, Craig Hammack, Hanzhi Tang (vfx supervisors), Dan Sudick (sfx supervisor)

Fantastic Beasts: The Secrets of Dumbledore” (Warner Bros.)

Christian Manz, Benjamin Loch, Stephane Naze (visual effects supervisor), Alistair Williams (special effects supervisor)

Top Gun: Maverick” (Paramount Pictures) ***

Ryan Tudhope (visual effects supervisor), Scott R. Fisher (special effects coordinator), Seth Hill (visual effects supervisor), Bryan Litson (visual effects supervisor)

 ***Why Top Gun: Maverick for Best Visual Effects? Most likely because of the stunning aerial sequences where missiles are launched, aircrafts hit by bullets, clouds in the sky and well… the dark star.

More behind-the-scenes here.

Best Original Score

Babylon” (Paramount Pictures)

Justin Hurwitz

The Banshees of Inisherin” (Searchlight Pictures)

Carter Burwell

Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio” (Netflix)

Alexandre Desplat

The Woman King” (Sony Pictures)

Terence Blanchard

Women Talking” (MGM/United Artists Releasing) ***

Hildur Guðnadóttir

***Why Women Talking for Best Original Score? What is so brilliant about Women Talking is that the music complements the movie brilliantly. It truly enhances every scene, from soft acoustic to a full-blown orchestra.

The soundtrack is available here.

Best Original Song

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever” (Marvel Studios) ***

“Lift Me Up” by Tems, Ludwig Göransson, Rihanna and Ryan Coogler

Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio” (Netflix)

“Ciao Papa” by Alexandre Desplat, Roeban Katz and Guillermo del Toro

A Man Called Otto” (Sony Pictures)

“Til You’re Home” by Rita Wilson

RRR” (Variance Films)

“Naatu Naatu” by Kala Bhairava, M. M. Keeravani, Rahul Sipligunj

Tell It Like a Woman” (Samuel Goldwyn Films)

“Applause” by Diane Warren

***Why Black Panther: Wakanda Forever for Best Original Song? The song Lift Me Up has Oscar written all over it. It’s a song dedicated to ​​the late Chadwick Boseman and his legacy. The song was recorded in five countries. It’s raw, emotional, and one of Rihanna’s best vocal performances. 

The song is available here.

Best Documentary Feature

All That Breathes” (HBO Documentary Films) ***

Shaunak Sen (director and producer), Teddy Leifer, Aman Mann (producers)

All the Beauty and the Bloodshed” (Neon)

Laura Poitras (director and producer), Howard Gertler, Nan Goldin, Yoni Golijov, John S. Lyons (producers)

Bad Axe” (IFC Films)

David Siev (director, producer), Jude Harris, Diane-Moy Quon, Katarina Vasquez (producers)

Descendant” (Netflix)

Margaret Brown (director, producer), Essie Chambers, Kyle Martin (producers)

Fire of Love” (National Geographic Documentary Films/Neon)

Sara Dosa (director, producer), Shane Boris, Ina Fichman (producers)

 ***Why All That Breathes for Best Documentary Feature? The cinematography is breathtaking and the story is touching as it follows two Muslim brothers on a mission to save threatened kites. The film shows a dysfunctional family dynamic and an ecological and social mission in an emotional final edit. 

Watch the trailer here.

Best International Feature

​​“All Quiet on the Western Front” (Germany)

dir. Edward Berger

Argentina, 1985” (Argentina)

dir. Santiago Mitre

Close” (Belgium) ***

dir. Lukas Dhont

Holy Spider” (Denmark)

dir. Ali Abbassi

Decision to Leave” (South Korea)

dir. Park Chan-wook

***Why Close for Best International Feature? An important movie that shows the perspective of the young male experience and when society suddenly makes it hard for them to show emotions. It’s about intimacy and what the world feels like to teens when everyone wants you to be in a box with a label on it.

Watch the trailer here.

Best Animated Short

The Boy, the Mole, the Fox, and the Horse” (Apple TV+)

Peter Baynton (director), J.J. Abrams, Matthew Freud, Cara Speller (producers)

The Flying Sailor” (The Animation Showcase)

Wendy Tilby, Amanda Forbis (directors), David Christensen (producer)

My Year of Dicks” (The Animation Showcase)

Sara Gunnarsdóttir (director, producer)

New Moon” (Edith Productions) ***

Raul Domingo (director, producer), Colman Domingo (producer), Jérémie Balais, Jeffig Le Bars (directors)

Save Ralph” (Blue-Tongue Films)

Spencer Susser (director, producer), Lisa Hill, Jeff Vespa (producers)

***Why New Moon for Best Animated Short? It’s a powerful story about women of color, mothers and their sons, their hardship, and the love that keeps them going.

Watch the trailer here

Best Documentary Short

38 at the Garden” (HBO Max) ***

Frank Chi (director), Trayvon Free, Samir Hernandez (producers)

As Far as They Can Run” (MTV Documentary Films)

Tanaz Eshaghian (director, producer), Christoph Jörg (producer)

Holding Moses” (Frankly Speaking Films)

Rivkah Beth Medow (director), Jen Rainin (producer)

How Do You Measure a Year?” (Jay Rosenblatt Films)

Jay Rosenblatt (director, producer)

Nuisance Bear” (The New Yorker)

Gabriela Osio Vanden (director), Jack Weisman (director, producer), Melissa Fajardo, Will N. Miller (producers)

***Why 38 at the Garden for Best Documentary Short? The HBO doc has to do with the rise of NBA star Jeremy Lin and the important fight for inclusion. It was produced by recent Best Live Action Short Oscar winner Travon Free. 

Watch the trailer here.

Best Live Action Short

An Irish Goodbye” (Floodlight Pictures)

Tom Berkeley, Ross White (directors, producers), Pearce Cullen, Sean A. Murray (producers)

Le Pupille” (Disney+) ***

Alice Rohrwacher (director), Carlo Cresto-Dina, Alfonso Cuarón, Gabriela Rodriguez (producers)

Nakam” (Filmakademie Baden-Württemberg)

Andreas Kessler (director), Max Breuer, Janick Gootz (producers)

The Red Suitcase” (Cynefilms)

Cyrus Neshvad (director, producer)

Warsha” (The Criterion Channel)

Dania Bdeir (director, producer), Coralie Dias (producer)

***Why Le Pupille for Best Live Action Short? Engaging themes, Le Pupille follows rebellious girls at a Catholic school. The director won at the Canne Film Festival for his earlier movies, and this one was produced by an Oscar winner.

Watch the trailer here.

It’s difficult to predict who will win, but it’s even more difficult to predict who will be nominated. We’ll find out the list of our nominees in a few weeks. In the meantime, what are your predictions?

Our 2023 Oscars Predictions
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